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1533 ET – Crude futures snap a three-session losing streak in a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction to the OPEC+ decision to continue unwinding voluntary output cuts in October with a 137,000 barrels a day increase. The output decision is “sure to shake up the markets but was leaked last week and mostly priced in,” Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note.OPEC+ said it remains flexible on increases depending on market conditions, and committed to compensation for previous overproduction by some members. “So, when you consider the compensation cuts, we are not really going to see that many more barrels of oil,” Flynn adds. WTI settles up 0.6% at $62.26 a barrel and Brent rises 0.8% to $66.02. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Crude Futures Hold Gains After OPEC+ Output Decision
1236 ET – Oil futures are holding gains as the OPEC+ decision at the weekend to increase output by 137,000 barrels a day in October was largely priced in with last week’s retreat. The October increase, smaller than those of recent months, “buys time for bulls, but the baseline stays soft,” Joseph Dahrieh of Tickmill says in a note. “This restrained approach has alleviated fears of a looming supply glut and signaled to traders that the producers’ group is keen on defending prices.” Geopolitical tensions around the Russia-Ukraine war and the possibility of additional U.S. sanctions are supporting the gains, he adds. WTI is up 0.7% at $62.30 a barrel, and Brent gains 0.8% to $66.02 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Oil Market Takes Sanguine View of OPEC+ Output Plan
0906 ET – Crude futures are higher after OPEC+ agreed to return 137,000 barrels a day of output cuts in October and reiterated its flexibility to pause or reverse recent adjustments depending on market conditions. “The small hike might as well be labeled a pause, but for marketing and confidence reasons it looks better still to add some barrels back,” Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities says in a note. The cautious output increase may have little impact on net exports, but “we’ll need to keep an eye on key producers’ exports to understand their resolve to win back market share for real,” he adds. WTI is up 1.8% at $63.01 a barrel and Brent gains 1.9% to $66.74. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Goldman Sees Modestly Larger Oil Surplus in 2026
1134 GMT – Goldman Sachs expects a slightly larger oil surplus next year due to higher output in the Americas, despite an upward revision in global demand. The U.S. bank now forecasts excess supply of 1.9 million barrels a day in 2026—up from a previous estimate of 1.7 million barrels a day—with growth mainly driven by Brazil, Canada and Guyana. Global oil demand is expected to grow by 900,000 barrels a day next year. Goldman projects Brent crude and WTI prices to average $56 and $52 a barrel, respectively, in 2026. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
European Oil Companies Gain as Oil Rises
0726 GMT – European oil-and-gas companies were amongst the largest gainers in opening trade in Europe. The rise came as Brent crude rose 1.8% to $66.66 a barrel despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreeing to raise oil output further next month. The supply increases of 137,000 barrels a day from October are below previous moves, below expectations and flexible, Swissquote Bank’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya wrote. In London, BP rises 1.7% and Shell is up 1.2%. France’s TotalEnergies and Spain’s Repsol are both up around 1.4%. In Italy, Eni trades up 0.6%.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
Oil Rises as Traders Assess OPEC+ Output Increase
0046 GMT — Oil rises in early Asian trade, as traders assess OPEC+’s move to boost oil output further in October. Oil prices have remained resilient despite rising OPEC supply, ANZ Research analysts write in a note. “Much of that has been due to China soaking up additional barrels, but that support may be coming to an end,” they say. China, the world’s largest oil importer, has taken advantage of extra OPEC supply to raise its stockpiles. Front-month WTI crude oil futures rise 0.5% to $62.18/bbl; front-month Brent futures are 0.5% higher at $65.85/bbl. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
Source: msn
